EU-Indonesia CEPA: How Much of Vietnam's Tuna Advantage Remains?
Vietnam's tuna industry is facing a new competitive challenge in the European Union as Indonesia moves closer to implementing its Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the EU.
Vietnamese tuna exports to the EU have struggled to regain momentum, while Indonesia combines a large domestic tuna resource base with a rapidly advancing trade framework with Europe. If the EU-Indonesia CEPA enters into force, the competitive landscape could become more challenging for Vietnamese suppliers, particularly in processed tuna products.
For exporters, however, the issue goes beyond tariffs. Raw material availability, rules of origin, traceability, processing capability, and supply reliability could determine how effectively each country converts trade preferences into market share.
Vietnam's Tuna Exports to the EU Remain Under Pressure
Vietnam's tuna exports to the EU have continued to face difficulties in 2026.
According to the latest industry data, Vietnam's tuna exports to the EU reached approximately US$104 million during the first seven months of 2026, down nearly 17% year on year. Exports in July alone were around US$16 million, representing a 9% decline.
The decline comes despite some signs of improvement in Vietnam's overall tuna exports. In July, Vietnam's total tuna export turnover increased strongly, but recovery remained uneven across markets.
This means the European market remains an area where Vietnamese tuna exporters need to strengthen competitiveness rather than simply wait for demand to recover.
EU-Indonesia CEPA Could Change the Competitive Landscape
The EU and Indonesia finalized negotiations for the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in September 2025.
On 29 June 2026, the European Commission presented proposals to the Council for the signing and conclusion of the CEPA and Investment Protection Agreement. However, the agreement has not yet entered into force. Indonesia's government was still describing the agreement as moving toward the final stage of signing and ratification in August 2026.
This distinction is important for seafood exporters.
Indonesia does not yet have the full benefit of the new agreement. Nevertheless, once the CEPA is implemented, tariff preferences could alter the relative competitiveness of Indonesian seafood products in the EU market.
The European Commission has specifically confirmed that tariff treatment for frozen tuna fillets was addressed during the negotiations, making the agreement particularly relevant to the tuna sector.
Indonesia Has a Major Raw Material Advantage
One of Indonesia's strongest advantages is its access to tuna resources.
Indonesia reported approximately 1.5 million tonnes of tuna production in 2023, according to Indonesia's Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries. The figure includes tuna, skipjack, and related tuna fisheries categories used in the country's sector statistics.
Indonesia's broader marine capture fisheries are also substantially larger than Vietnam's. In 2023, Indonesia accounted for around 7.4 million tonnes of marine capture production, compared with approximately 3.6 million tonnes for Vietnam.
For tuna processors, a strong domestic raw material base can provide several advantages:
- Greater supply security
- More flexibility in production planning
- Better opportunities to meet origin requirements
- Lower dependence on imported raw materials
- Greater potential for integrated processing chains
These factors could become increasingly important if EU buyers place greater emphasis on traceability and origin compliance.
Vietnam Still Has Competitive Advantages
The growing Indonesian challenge does not mean Vietnam will automatically lose its position in the EU tuna market.
Vietnam has established tuna processing capabilities, experienced exporters, international customer relationships, and a developed seafood supply chain. These are important advantages that cannot be replaced simply by a tariff reduction.
Vietnamese suppliers can also compete through:
- Processing expertise
- Product consistency
- Flexible specifications
- Value-added products
- Established European distribution networks
- Strong quality and food safety systems
The competitive question will therefore be whether Vietnamese exporters can offset potential tariff disadvantages through product value, processing efficiency, service, and supply reliability.
Rules of Origin and Traceability Will Become More Important
As preferential trade agreements expand, tariffs are only one part of the equation.
Rules of origin can determine whether a product actually qualifies for preferential treatment. For tuna exporters, this makes the origin of raw materials and the ability to document the supply chain increasingly important.
Traceability is therefore becoming a strategic factor rather than simply a compliance requirement.
Exporters supplying the EU market should pay particular attention to:
- Fishing vessel documentation
- Catch certificates
- Raw material origin
- Processing records
- Chain-of-custody documentation
- Product traceability
- Consistency between commercial and regulatory documents
A competitive tariff alone will not provide an advantage if the exporter cannot demonstrate that its products meet the relevant origin and traceability requirements.
What Does This Mean for Vietnamese Tuna Exporters?
The potential implementation of the EU-Indonesia CEPA means Vietnamese tuna exporters may need to compete on more than price.
If Indonesia gains improved tariff access while maintaining its raw material advantage, European buyers could have more incentive to diversify sourcing toward Indonesian suppliers.
For Vietnamese exporters, the response could focus on moving up the value chain and strengthening supply-chain transparency.
Rather than competing solely on commodity tuna products, exporters could increase their focus on:
- Higher-value processed tuna
- Retail-ready products
- Customized specifications
- Reliable year-round supply
- Traceable raw materials
- Sustainable sourcing
- Strong technical support for European buyers
This approach can help reduce exposure to pure tariff-based competition.
Vietnam's Tuna Advantage Is Changing — Not Disappearing
The EU-Indonesia CEPA is not yet in force, so it is too early to conclude that Indonesia has already gained a decisive tariff advantage over Vietnam.
However, the direction of travel is clear.
Indonesia has a large tuna resource base and is moving closer to a new preferential trade framework with the EU. At the same time, Vietnamese tuna exports to the EU remain under pressure.
For Vietnam, the key challenge is therefore not simply maintaining the advantages it has today, but building new ones.
Competitive processing, traceable sourcing, product differentiation, and reliable supply could become increasingly important as the European tuna market becomes more competitive.
Conclusion
The potential EU-Indonesia CEPA marks an important development for the European tuna market. Although the agreement still requires further steps before it takes effect, its eventual implementation could intensify competition for Vietnamese tuna exporters.
Vietnam still has strong processing capabilities and established market relationships, but the competitive landscape is changing.
For Vietnamese seafood businesses, the next stage of competition in Europe may depend less on traditional price advantages and more on origin, traceability, processing value, product quality, and supply reliability.
