Seafood Consumption and Export Trends for Late 2024
Vietnam’s seafood export market is poised for significant growth in the latter half of 2024, with forecasts indicating that total exports will exceed USD 5.5 billion by the end of the year. Several key markets, including the U.S., EU, and China, have already shown strong demand, and this trend is expected to continue into late 2024. Vietnam’s pangasius exports, in particular, have seen substantial increases. In Q2 2024, pangasius exports to the U.S. surged by 40%, while China recorded a 23% rise in demand for this product.
In the EU, Vietnamese seafood exports have been more moderate, with single-digit growth for both pangasius and shrimp. However, this slower growth is not solely due to reduced demand but also influenced by the broader economic challenges the region faces. Despite this, Vietnam is in a strong position to increase its seafood exports to the EU, particularly in the wake of the EU’s restrictions on seafood imports from Russia, which has created an opportunity for Vietnam to expand its market share in Europe.
Factors Influencing Seafood Prices in Late 2024
Several factors will contribute to the anticipated price surge in seafood during the latter half of 2024. These include:
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Weather Conditions and Seasonal Variations
Weather plays a crucial role in seafood production, as unpredictable conditions can impact harvests, reducing supply and driving up prices. Seasonal variations, particularly during peak holiday periods in major markets, also affect demand and pricing trends. A stronger demand is expected during the end-of-year holiday season, further pushing prices upward. -
Rising Input Costs
The cost of key inputs, including fuel, feed, and labor, has been steadily rising throughout 2024. These increasing costs are expected to drive up the overall price of seafood products, making exports more expensive. Vietnamese producers are already experiencing tighter margins due to these rising costs, which will likely translate into higher prices for international buyers. -
Recovery of Domestic and Global Demand
As domestic and global economies continue to recover from the disruptions caused by the pandemic, demand for seafood is picking up, particularly in markets like the U.S. and China. This recovery is boosting both domestic consumption and export opportunities for Vietnamese seafood producers. -
U.S. Market Trends
Despite ongoing economic uncertainties, U.S. consumers are shifting toward more affordable seafood options due to price sensitivity. This trend is favorable for Vietnamese exports, particularly for pangasius, which is often seen as a budget-friendly alternative to more expensive seafood. The continued popularity of pangasius in the U.S. is expected to support Vietnam's strong presence in this market, even as economic conditions remain uncertain.
Impact of Russia’s Seafood Restrictions on the EU Market
The EU's tightening of restrictions on seafood imports from Russia has created an important opportunity for Vietnam. As European countries seek alternative suppliers to replace the significant volume of seafood previously imported from Russia, Vietnam’s seafood industry is poised to fill this gap. Although the EU market presents some challenges, including stricter quality standards and environmental regulations, Vietnamese producers who can meet these requirements may see their exports to Europe grow steadily through the end of 2024.
Conclusion: Positive Outlook for Late 2024
With demand on the rise and factors such as weather, rising input costs, and market shifts all contributing to the forecasted price surge, the outlook for Vietnam’s seafood exports remains positive for the remainder of 2024. Key products like pangasius and shrimp are expected to benefit from this surge, with continued strong performance in markets like the U.S., China, and the EU. Vietnamese seafood exporters must continue to monitor these trends and adapt accordingly to maximize their potential during this growth period.
